The 80-20 rule, and recall

Everyone remembers going through school and being graded “on the curve.” But did you ever wonder what “the curve” is? The answer is that it describes the distribution of behavior in nature. Practically every behavior we can track follows the bell curve. Let’s avoid the long discourse and cut to the chase: It’s called the Pareto Principal (you can read about it at Wikipedia, if you are interested) and it basically predicts that 80 percent of the money to recall Pacific Mayor Cy Sun will come from 20 percent of the donors.

The committee to recall Mr. Sun seems to be gaining steam. $11,000 has been raised, according to the recall site, and another $10,000 may be needed. There are a lot of $25 donations. However, there was also a $5,000 donation offered, and turned  down because it was over the allowable limit. 

Who has $5,000 to give, and why? And who are the other deep pockets? If Mr. Sun is going to be recalled, the process should be transparent. Mr. Sun ran on a platform of removing corruption, and it would be a bit disgusting if the people who removed him weren’t honest about the source of the funds that accomplished the task, and what the donors stood to gain.

It wouldn’t bother me to know that XYZ Storage (made-up name) was putting up the money because the company was losing its shirt due to inability to obtain a building permit. Who could blame them? But in a case of changing the city’s administration, you want to know who is making the large donations, and why.

The people involved in the campaign want to save the city of Pacific. There have been campaigns before to change things in Pacific, and they were betrayed by the winners, who just retained the same old bad practices, which were the reason Mr. Sun  was elected in the first place. And while it looks like a lot of people are up in arms, you can’t predict the outcome of an election without some sophisticated polling, and even then you won’t know until the ballots are counted.  Lose this one, and he’s there for his full term, or the city folds, whichever comes first.

So, if there’s going to be a change, it would be good to know that the people funding the change have something to offer beside the same-old same-old.

And if they really are interested in saving the city, they have to keep in mind that the recall may not come in time. The recall supporters need to be working on a second front – getting qualified people appointed as department heads to meet the city’s obligation to its insurance carrier at the same time they are racing to decapitate the administration. That's a tall order.

In a way, Mr. Sun is holding the city hostage. Maybe it’s time for a hostage negotiator.